Trump Surrenders to Iran

After threatening to destroy Iranian civilian bridges and power plants, and declaring “a whole civilization will die tonight,” U.S. president Donald Trump backed down, accepting a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on Iran’s terms. Both sides reportedly agreed to a two-week halt in fighting to allow negotiations, using Iran’s 10-point list of demands as a framework.  

Trump launched the war with absolutist goals, talking of regime change, demanding “unconditional surrender,” and saying he would pick Iran’s next leader. When it was clear the regime survived U.S. and Israeli assassinations of top leaders and could exert leverage by blocking shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump escalated bombing, threatened ground invasion, and communicated a list of 15 demands that included Iran forfeiting its nuclear program and immediately reopening the strait. When that went nowhere, he bombed more, destroyed a civilian bridge—likely a war crime—and made genocidal threats. Then he folded.

Negotiations could go nowhere, but for now at least, the United States accepted in principle to lift all sanctions on Iran, unfreeze Iranian assets, and recognize that Iran controls Hormuz, imposing a toll of up to $2 million per ship. America will end all attacks on Iran or its allies, withdraw U.S. forces, and get Israel to stop as well. 

That’s supposed to include an end to Israeli operations in Lebanon—where they’re fighting with Iran’s ally Hezbollah and razing villages to establish a “buffer zone”—but Israel says they’ll continue (as of this writing, Israel is still bombing). The UAE and other Gulf states reported launches from Iran after the ceasefire, but that could be because Iran spread its forces and reduced communications to avoid detection, and the order to stop hasn’t fully filtered down yet. Those and other problems could disrupt negotiations, but America has stopped shooting, and if Trump follows through on even some of these concessions, Iran will have won this war.

Whatever happens with U.S. sanctions or Israeli attacks in other parts of the Middle East, Iran has already won on the Strait of Hormuz. By maintaining an ability to launch attacks into the strait despite extensive U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Iran established de facto control of a major international waterway and the ability to choke off global energy supplies. That alone is a defeat for the United States, which as the world’s premier power and the dominant navy in the Middle East had guaranteed freedom of navigation for decades.

The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, and it’s hard to see how America can maintain that or other Gulf bases with Iran controlling the only naval entry point. The Gulf Arab states may rethink U.S. basing rights, since America’s war left their infrastructure damaged, showed the U.S. couldn’t fully protect them, and will have them paying tribute to Iran to maintain their economic output. Then again, no matter how bitter they are about it, they might not have a better option. Perhaps the Gulf Arab states regret bribing Trump and his family, and drawing so close to him personally—but in international affairs, regret and five dollars will buy you a bag of chips.

Hormuz toll revenue would be an immense boon to Iran, perhaps generating over $100 billion a year, which is about the size of Iran’s entire government budget. The U.S. accepting that is a remarkable reversal, since one of the main criticisms against Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) was it supposedly gave Iran $1.7 billion in “pallets of cash” along with sanctions relief. That $1.7B was actually returning Iranian funds including interest, which the U.S. froze in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution, when new sanctions prevented transferring military equipment Iran had bought under the U.S.-supported Shah. $100B per year is a lot more than a single payment of $1.7B.

While Trump lied at the time that the U.S. gave Iran economic benefits and “got nothing,” what the U.S. actually got was verified elimination of nearly all Iran’s enriched uranium and reduction of Iran’s capacity to enrich more. Then in 2018, in his first presidential term, Trump had the U.S. renege on JCPOA, letting Iran out of nuclear restrictions in exchange for nothing and reimposing U.S. sanctions, claiming that “maximum pressure” would force Iran into a “better deal.”

In reality, it got Iran to ramp up enrichment again, while the Iranian regime continued doing other things Trump promised to stop, such as supporting proxy militias in various Middle Eastern countries, including some that occasionally fire rockets at U.S. bases. In 2025, in Trump’s second term, he launched a few days of limited bombing against Iranian nuclear sites, lying afterwards that Iran’s program was “completely and totally obliterated.” Then at the end of February 2026 Trump launched this recent, more destructive war, claiming the reason was, among other things, to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Speaking of which, the Associated Press reports that the version of the ceasefire in Farsi includes “acceptance of enrichment,” which isn’t in the English language version. And the Americans are acting like it’s the opposite. Even after the ceasefire went into effect, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is still demanding Iran turn over its uranium stockpiles, and Trump is claiming the U.S. will be working with Iran to “remove” its uranium. Iran rejected that before the U.S. attacked, so there’s no way they’d agree to it now that they survived an American-Israeli assault and got the U.S. to negotiate on their terms.

No one knows if the Trump regime will accept such an unambiguous failure and try to cover it with bluster—putting on a show for any Americans who still, even after all this, think yelling, insults, and threats amount to strength—or use it as a reason to restart the war. It’s apparent Trump wanted out, fears the economic damage, and has no compunction about lying that a loss is a win. But even as big a liar as he will have trouble selling a mostly closed strait as fully open—Iran has increased the number of ships allowed through Hormuz, but is still limiting it to less than 10% of pre-war traffic while demanding fees—or spin ongoing economic problems as a boom.   

A few weeks ago I wrote that in war, unlike in business, Trump can’t declare bankruptcy and walk away. But if he follows through on accepting Iran’s ceasefire terms, that’s about as close as it can get. And like Trump’s bankruptcies, most of the financial losses here don’t fall on him personally. Analogously, the Gulf Arab states are the partners he’s screwing over, and the United States of America is in the role of the corporate entity he uses to extract personal wealth and absorb his losses.

The U.S. and Israel did a lot of damage, but almost everything they destroyed can be rebuilt. The Iranian regime is intact, with new people stepping into senior positions, and Revolutionary Guard hardliners appear to have gained domestic influence. Rather than weaken Iran, Trump handed them control of a major international waterway and a lucrative new stream of revenue. And that’s in the positive scenario, where he doesn’t restart the war, digging deeper into a strategic hole.

It’s arguably America’s worst loss ever. 1812 and Korea were draws in which the U.S. failed to achieve some goals but also thwarted the other sides’. Bay of Pigs was a failed operation, not a war of this scale. Vietnam and Afghanistan were withdrawals in failure, but neither loss involved ceding anything to a geopolitical adversary.

Will Trump restart the war as it becomes increasingly clear the economic damage and energy disruptions won’t magically disappear? Will Iran resume fire in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, or the U.S. dragging its feet on sanctions relief? And if the U.S. sees new Iranian attacks but only on Israel, the UAE, or other non-American targets, does Trump let that go?

Any deal could collapse for a host of reasons, or fighting could resume in two weeks if the sides remain far apart. Maybe Trump agreed to Iran’s negotiating framework in bad faith, ceasing fire to manipulate markets and hoping that fear of resumed bombing gets Iran to drop demands they thought the U.S. accepted. Or perhaps he’s playing for time while moving ground forces into position. America’s 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit has been en route since late March, and won’t arrive until mid-April, around when the ceasefire is scheduled to expire.  

For now, the U.S. president is claiming “there will be no enrichment” and that the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” while lying that Iran has had “a very productive Regime Change” and that many of the White House’s “15 points have already been agreed to.” That could presage renewed conflict when reality doesn’t play along, or Trump could make concessions to satisfy Iran then make it his priority to lie to the American people, no matter how absurd.

From Iran’s perspective, a brief halt to fighting is beneficial even if the U.S. gives none of the discussed concessions. If the war restarts, Iran still maintains control of Hormuz, got a pause to assess the damage and catch their breath, and gained some diplomatic points with China, which reportedly pushed Iran to accept a ceasefire. The world saw the United States act more eager for a deal and Iran display greater resolve, making some countries more likely to pay Iran’s toll instead of waiting for the U.S. to restore freedom of navigation.

If the war ends here, it’s a bad geopolitical setback for the United States, made worse by the fact that it was entirely unnecessary, with consequences widely foreseen in advance. Except, apparently, by the White House. But averting more death and destruction is a positive, especially when the alternative is American leaders enthusiastically ordering war crimes.If there’s a silver lining, it’s this: A majority of Americans opposed the war from the start, it has driven wedges into Trump’s coalition and driven his approval rating even further underwater, and the ongoing economic disruption will harm his party’s chances in this year’s midterm elections, bringing pro-democracy Americans closer to removing the president who illegally started and humiliatingly lost a war without Congressional authorization or public consent.

Featured image is Rotterdam tijdens de overgave