Better Win a District: Arkansas’s Second

Until Election Day, I’ll be talking each week about a race where Democrats have a chance to make a stretch gain against Republicans. I’m starting off this three-part series in my own backyard with the Arkansas Second Congressional District. The race here was recently added to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which means national Democrats realize they have a chance to win the district for the first time since 2008. This year, Chris Jones, an MIT graduate, minister, and former gubernatorial candidate faces off against longtime Republican incumbent French Hill. 

In addition to background conversations and relying on local news outlets, I talked some with my friend Austin Gelder, editor of the Arkansas Times. I’ll refer to her insights throughout. 

My district covers the middle of the state, including the capital and largest city, Little Rock. The Little Rock metro dominates the district, although the last Republican gerrymander cut a corner of Little Rock’s home county, Pulaski, off and placed it in AR-04. Arkansas is a rural state, and, outside of Little Rock itself, no other urban unit in the district hits 100,000 in population. Little Rock and neighboring North Little Rock are also the two deepest blue spots on the map. Little Rock mayor Frank Scott, Jr., a Democrat, was recently president of the African-American Mayors Association. 

The suburbs and exurbs of Little Rock extend into places like White County, my childhood home and the site of Harding University, an evangelical Christian institution and the largest private university in the state. They also include Faulkner County, where the county seat, Conway, is home to three tertiary institutions and is one of the hundred fastest growing cities over 50,000 in the country. I lived in Conway briefly, and my dad spent his last decade-plus there as a professor at the University of Central Arkansas. Saline County, where I now live, is home to the booming suburbs of Bryant and Benton. 

I lay this all out to highlight that flipping the district will require both high turnout from Democrats and a serious collapse with blocs that have traditionally voted Republican. Our representative, French Hill, is not a firebrand. He’s barely an ember. He’s a country club Republican, a former Reagan and George H. W. Bush appointee, former banking executive, and a lifelong Catholic with traditionally conservative views on abortion. Hill’s moneyed connections and low-key presentation are part of what’s helped him survive other cycles where it looked like the district could be in play. But in 2026, a Republican collapse is shaping up across the country. 

Gas prices and inflation, ballooned by tariffs, are hurting Americans everywhere. But Arkansas is a poor state, and Hill’s tony, Reagan-era sensibilities make it especially hard for him to message on the cost of living. When I talked to Gelder, she put it like this: 

"I think French Hill is unique largely because he's such an out-of-touch blueblood, whereas other Arkansas Republican candidates tend to be good old boys and therefore more relatable to most people. It would maybe not feel all that weird to see other Arkansas politicians shopping at Walmart on a weekend morning, but French Hill really gives the air that he would never do something so lowbrow and normal."

There are wealthy pockets in Little Rock and its suburbs, and the district has a somewhat higher median income than the rest of the state. But Arkansas as a whole has a median household annual income of just $62,106.00, only leading Mississippi, West Virginia, and Louisiana. Affordability is always a challenge here. Spending cuts and skyrocketing gas prices have only compounded that. As Tess Vrbin reported for the Arkansas Advocate earlier this month, 

"Jones' concerns about affordability in Arkansas include the looming cuts to low-income people's health insurance and nutrition assistance under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that President Donald Trump signed last year and Hill supported.

"The law is expected to cut rural Medicaid spending by $15.5 billion per year over the next decade. More than 800,000 low-income or disabled Arkansans rely on Medicaid. …

"Jones has criticized Hill for not voting to end the war in Iran that Trump started in February. He said central Arkansans regularly tell him how frustrated they are about the conflict, which has cost the federal government billions of dollars per week and raised the cost of gasoline."

As Gelder told me, Hill is less comfortable messaging on these issues, and the same financial networks that have made him hard to defeat also hurt his credibility on affordability:

"French Hill has an ad out right now where he's pumping gas into a red pickup, which is so not-on-brand for this Heights banker country clubber. And the insinuation here is that he, just like you, is feeling the pain at the pump.

"Hill will say things like that when just months ago he led a successful push to let banks reinstate punitive, compounding overdraft fees on cash-strapped customers trying to get by between paychecks. The idea that Hill is doing a single thing for poor and working-class people is just outlandish. Last week he got $1 million from the crypto industry, one of the interests for whom he actually works, and by whom he is paid handsomely. If you're a banker or a finance bro, sure, vote for French Hill."

All of this is why we’ve seen Democrats like Pete Buttigieg and Joe Kennedy III come down to rally for Jones. And it’s why we’ve seen shifts from prognosticators like Larry Sabato, with some polling even showing a slight lead for Jones. But the anti-Hill coalition isn’t overly sanguine. After all, there have been too many near-misses at dislodging Hill ever since the state hard-shifted from blue to red in 2010 (the lone exception being Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, who rolled to re-election that year despite a red tide). Here’s Gelder again:

"There was some dancing and music when Mayor Pete Buttigieg came to town to campaign for Jones, and it's clear that people are enthusiastic about Chris Jones as a person and candidate, but I'd say 'determined' is more the word when it comes to the actual race."

A gain here in central Arkansas would be a boon for Democrats, netting them a new toehold in the South in a relatively young and diverse district. And the trade-offs should be appealing. As Gelder said, “I think national Dems write off Arkansas Dems because there are so few of them and the state is so bloody red, but that's really dumb because we are the cheapest date around!” She added, “There is no question in my mind that if the financial resources were equal between the candidates on the Arkansas ballot this year, we'd see a lot of flips.” 

I share Gelder’s optimism. Overall, Arkansas is still a deep, deep red, but the spots of blue and purple aren’t a mirage. And thanks to Trump’s untethered approach in his second term, Hill could hemorrhage enough of the suburban and country club Republicans who usually shore up his vote to give the race to Jones. In a few weeks, we’ll find out if Jones, the national party, and local campaigners have done enough to notch a win here.

Featured Image is Conway's downtown at Toad Suck Square, by Ronny Willhite