The Evangelical Vote Will Return in 2028

Fans of liberal democracy, including those of us who follow religion, are right to be buoyed by this week's results. Unlike in 2020, Americans resoundingly rejected not just MAGA candidates, but the bigoted, fear-mongering tactics that have sadly proven successful over the last ten years. In Texas, which had become a laboratory for Christian nationalist policy, there is now only one statewide Republican elected official left, Senator Ted Cruz. And candidates like James Talarico and Adam Hamilton articulated a new kind of white Christianity that is compatible with democracy and pluralism. Are we witnessing a religious realignment?

Not yet. At the risk of being Debby Downer at the party, I have to point out some bad news in the initial data: Over 80 percent of white evangelicals, the group most responsible for powering MAGA, still voted Republican, representing no statistically significant movement. That is despite high gas prices, despite solid Christian messaging by Democrats, despite Trump's increasingly evident insanity and corruption, despite the administration's failure to admit a single refugee fleeing religious persecution, despite, even, the administration's failure to take further action to restrict abortion rights. No movement.

Even in Texas, where Talarico leaned hard into faith and ran against one of the most reviled officials in state history, 80 percent of white evangelicals voted for Ken Paxton. In Kansas, better news—only 76 percent of white evangelicals voted for Roger Marshall, probably because Hamilton, the pastor of a Methodist megachurch, codes more theologically conservative than Talarico. But generally, white evangelicals are accustomed to dismissing mainline Christians—and many Black Christians—as heretics. 

Now here's the good news within the bad news: White evangelicals only made up 17 percent of the electorate, compared to roughly 25 percent in the last two midterm cycles. Although the data are still coming in, if you extrapolate from exit polls combined with the total number of votes cast, it appears that about 7 million fewer white evangelicals voted this time than in previous cycles. There was also higher turnout overall, meaning other demographics diluted the white evangelical share. 

Another piece of good news is that the growing political confluence of Hispanic evangelicals with white evangelicals showed some reversal, although we only have data at this point on Hispanic Protestants, who are mostly but not exclusively evangelical. In 2024, 64 percent of Hispanic Protestants voted for Trump, while this week, only 56 percent voted Republican. 

All told, this year shows our country doesn't need to be held hostage by a demographic that only accounts for 13 percent of the population but whose lockstep, immovable Republican loyalty and high turnout has made them the most influential voting bloc in our politics. 

But we can only break their grip if the rest of us do our part. Those writing obituaries for Christian nationalism need to hold off. Make no mistake, white evangelicals will be back. They haven't changed their theology, their cultural attitudes, their informational insularity, or their certain belief in their own righteousness. They comprise the most pro-authoritarian subculture in our country, and that's not a recent thing. White evangelicals have long prioritized the social values of authoritarianism—order, hierarchy, conformity, submission to authority, and control. They have always been especially prone to political authoritarianism. Trump has given them a taste of that, and they evidently like it just fine, judging from their voting behavior. Once they have a more visible, empowered enemy again, in the form of ascendant Democrats, they can easily galvanize. 

So, Democrats must sustain this momentum. They must keep reaching the majority of voters and turning them out in large numbers. They must keep choosing great candidates who are a good fit with their electorates. That includes those like Talarico and Hamilton who are comfortable with faith, and others who are comfortable with people of faith. Faith has cultural currency, especially in red and purple areas, beyond hardcore white evangelicals. Rising secularism seems to have plateaued since 2020, and 70 percent of Americans continue to identify with religion in some capacity. Democrats' greater comfort with religion will create permission structures for an array of people who might not normally vote for them. 

In addition, although the data doesn’t indicate a liberal Christian appeal has thus far swayed many white evangelicals, I still believe that those of us who call ourselves Christians and love democracy—especially if we are white—can't give up trying to articulate a compelling vision of Christianity that might replace white evangelicalism. The church wasn't built in a day, and it won’t be rebuilt in a year, or a decade, or three. The pace of religious change is slower than the speed of politics. But however much of a slog it may be, it is worth the effort. White Christianity has largely driven American-style authoritarianism for our entire history. Reforming it will aid our long-term democratic health. 

Featured Image is President Trump Visits St. John's Episcopal Church, by Shealah Craighead