The Next Great Test of American Democracy Approaches

It’s Tuesday. Here’s a liberal look at the news.

The midterms are coming, whether we are ready or not

There are 28 days until November 3. We are in the final stretch of an election cycle that seemed to begin immediately after crushing Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey last year, if not even earlier.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of these midterms as a stepping stone towards ending authoritarianism in America. More than anything—more than any power that will be granted to the majority party of each chamber of Congress in 2027, separately or jointly—the November elections will serve as a true test of the current state of American democracy.

The way Americans see themselves matters a great deal for the short-term on the ground reality. While we failed the electoral test in 2024, so long as we hold even a vestige of functional democracy in place, the testing never truly ends. As Valentín Tapia wrote for LC, even in the darkest days of Pinochet, “Chileans saw themselves as citizens of a republic.” In America in 2026, Trump does not have consolidated control over the military, police, other entities of government, media, and so forth to where he could simply impose whatever political result he wishes—nowhere near it.

The polls are looking more promising than ever. A Reuters/Ipsos poll yesterday found that Trump’s approval ratings are at a record low. Indeed, this has been the year where the seemingly unbreakable approval ratings floor Trump has enjoyed for a decade has finally cracked. G. Elliot Morris argues that essentially all the data we have right now indicates a high chance of a blue wave, with some disagreement and intrinsic uncertainty as to its exact magnitude.

But no one knows what tomorrow will bring. Polls are useful tools but you cannot know how far off they are in a given year until the results are in. The biggest test of public opinion that matters is their actual behavior at the ballot box. Even if gerrymandering dulls the impact, it will matter if congressional “popular vote” overwhelmingly swings against Republicans. Even if the administration engages in election interference of some kind or another, a big blue wave will stretch their manpower far too thin to make a dent.

And we should anticipate interference. Just read this interview with Utah’s Republican Lieutenant Governor, Deidre Henderson, on the various ways that the administration has been attempting to interfere there all year.

Politics is part of our country, but politics is sharing ideas, debating ideas, making sure that your side is articulating what you want to do. Politics should not be messing around with the rules of the game to benefit one side or another. That should never happen, and that gamesmanship keeps me up at night.

If you live in a district you believe is a likely target, or simply want to do more to ensure the integrity of this election, consider connecting with Indivisible’s election protection efforts. This will not only prepare you for November 3 and its immediate aftermath, but will be an invaluable experience for the remaining elections that will occur during Trump’s second term of office—including, of course, the 2028 presidential election.

Brazil’s triumph over authoritarianism is being tested at the ballot box

For much of this year, Brazil has been held up as a model of triumphing against domestic authoritarian movements. Zack Beauchamp had perhaps the most comprehensive analysis of this back in February. The bottom line is that the Brazilian government had the will to hold Jair Bolsonaro and his cronies accountable for their actions in office.

But three years after Bolsonaro’s term is far, far too early to declare victory. And Brazil’s election results from Sunday are extremely disturbing on that front. It is not just that Bolsonaro’s party—the so-called “Liberal Party,” sob—performed well. It is not just that Bolsonaro’s oldest son, Flávio, received more votes than President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round, putting him in the stronger position as they head to an October 25 runoff election. But worse, as Tiago Rogero in the Guardian puts it, is that “a sweeping far-right victory in congressional races also secured seats for Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, two of his sons and one of his brothers.”

We talk a lot about personalism here at Liberal Currents, because that is our basic theory of Trump. Even more than in his first term, the Trump family has loomed large since his victory in 2024. His wife Melania launched her own meme coin very shortly before his inauguration, and the family has enriched itself in countless ways that have already been documented.

The prominence of Bolsonaro’s family specifically does not bode well for Brazil’s future. Let us hope that the runoff, at least, does not go their way.

Cartoon violence of the day

anyway in a just world a giant cartoon piano would fall on hanania and tracey in the middle of their pro rape podcast
— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) 2026-10-05T23:58:25.376Z

Bringing the war home

Lastly, President Trump says he’s ready to allow Iran to practice the cutting-off way on southern California, conceding that Los Angeles and San Diego may be destroyed by the Islamic Republic. Trump says that loss of part of the U.S. homeland will be a “very small price to pay” as he pursues his peacenik agenda of “keeping the world safe.”