After all the polling, after the social science modeling geographic polarization, voter sensitivity to economic conditions, and the impact of gerrymandering—after all of it, elections are fundamentally undetermined. The outcome cannot be known with certainty until the results are in. The predicted 2022 red wave—however thin the basis of that prediction—did not materialize. I was relieved then. It is with anxiety that I consider that very unpredictability today.
All signs are pointing to Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives, at minimum. Part of my anxiety is precisely the potential for more—to not just win a Senate majority, but perhaps even a seat or two beyond a bare Senate majority. It seems almost as likely as not getting a majority at all. The extreme differences in options available given very plausible possible outcomes is enough to make my head spin.
But the larger part of my concern rests with the extreme unpredictability of what the personality cult party will do between now and January. This is something we have discussed more than once, but merits constant attention until the votes are in and the next Congress is seated.
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